NFL picks and expert predictions as well as betting tips and parlays for all of this weeks games. All of our expert NFL predictions are against the spread. (ATS) This page will be updated weekly.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction, 2/7/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, Super Bowl
by Tony Sink - 1/26/2021
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The Kansas City Chiefs hit the road to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium (6:30 PM EST). The expected starters at QB are Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs and Tom Brady for the Buccaneers. This matchup report includes NFL odds, predictions, and a free pick against the spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers Prediction, 1/24/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, NFC Championship
by Tony Sink - 1/19/2021
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field (3:05 PM EST). The quarterbacks expected to start the game are Tom Brady for the Buccaneers and Aaron Rodgers for the Packers. This matchup report includes NFL odds, predictions, and a free pick against the spread.
Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, 1/24/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, AFC Championship
by Guy Bruhn - 1/19/2021
The Buffalo Bills go up against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium (6:40 PM EST). The expected starters at QB are Josh Allen for the Bills and Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs. This report includes betting predictions and our expert NFL picks for todays game.
Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, 1/17/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, Divisional Playoffs
by Josh Schonwald - 1/11/2021
The Cleveland Browns hit the road to play the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium (3:05 PM EST). The probable starting quarterbacks are Baker Mayfield for the Browns and Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs. This matchup report includes football betting lines and our pick of the day for this game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Prediction, 1/17/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, Divisional Playoffs
by Parlays Pundit - 1/11/2021
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers hit the road to take on the New Orleans Saints at Mercedes-Benz Superdome (6:40 PM EST). The expected starting QBs are Tom Brady for the Buccaneers and Drew Brees for the Saints. We have included an expert NFL pick and parlay for todays game against the spread.
Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, 1/16/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, Divisional Playoffs
by Guy Bruhn - 1/11/2021
The Baltimore Ravens take on the Buffalo Bills at Bills Stadium (8:15 PM EST). The QBs expected to start under center are Lamar Jackson for the Ravens and Josh Allen for the Bills. This report includes betting predictions and our expert NFL picks for todays game.
Los Angeles Rams vs Green Bay Packers Prediction, 1/16/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, Divisional Playoffs
by Tony Sink - 1/11/2021
The Los Angeles Rams take on the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field (4:35 PM EST). The expected starters at quarterback are Jared Goff for the Rams and Aaron Rodgers for the Packers. This matchup report includes NFL odds, predictions, and a free pick against the spread.
Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints Prediction, 1/10/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, Wild Card Playoff
by Guy Bruhn - 1/4/2021
The Chicago Bears take on the New Orleans Saints at Mercedes-Benz Superdome (4:40 PM EST). The expected starters at quarterback are Mitchell Trubisky for the Bears and Drew Brees for the Saints. This matchup report includes Vegas odds and a free NFL prediction for tonight.
Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans Prediction, 1/10/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, Wild Card Playoff
by Parlays Pundit - 1/4/2021
The Baltimore Ravens hit the road to play the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium (1:05 PM EST). The expected starting quarterbacks are Lamar Jackson for the Ravens and Ryan Tannehill for the Titans. We have included an expert NFL pick and parlay for todays game against the spread.
Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks Prediction, 1/9/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, Wild Card Playoff
by Guy Bruhn - 1/4/2021
The Los Angeles Rams go up against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field (4:40 PM EST). The expected starting quarterbacks are John Wolford for the Rams and Russell Wilson for the Seahawks. This report includes betting predictions and our expert NFL picks for todays game.
Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, 1/9/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, Wildcard Playoff
by Tony Sink - 1/4/2021
The Indianapolis Colts hit the road to take on the Buffalo Bills at Bills Stadium (1:05 PM EST). The expected starters at quarterback are Philip Rivers for the Colts and Josh Allen for the Bills. This matchup report includes NFL odds, predictions, and a free pick against the spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Football Team Prediction, 1/9/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, Wild Card Playoff
by Josh Schonwald - 1/4/2021
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the Washington Football Team at FedEx Field (8:15 PM EST). The QBs expected to start under center are Tom Brady for the Buccaneers and Alex Smith for the Football Team. This matchup report includes football betting lines and our pick of the day for this game.
Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction, 1/10/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, Wild Card Playoff
by Josh Schonwald - 1/4/2021
The Cleveland Browns hit the road to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field (8:15 PM EST). The QBs expected to start under center are Baker Mayfield for the Browns and Ben Roethlisberger for the Steelers. This games report has current odds, betting predictions, and free picks against the spread.
Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions Prediction, 1/3/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, Week 17
by Parlays Pundit - 12/29/2020
The Minnesota Vikings hit the road to play the Detroit Lions at Ford Field (1:00 PM EST). The probable starting QBs are Kirk Cousins for the Vikings and Matthew Stafford for the Lions. We have included an expert NFL pick and parlay for todays game against the spread.
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, 1/3/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, Week 17
by Tony Sink - 12/29/2020
The Miami Dolphins hit the road to take on the Buffalo Bills at Bills Stadium (1:00 PM EST). The QBs expected to start under center are Tua Tagovailoa for the Dolphins and Josh Allen for the Bills. This matchup report includes NFL odds, predictions, and a free pick against the spread.
New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers Prediction, 1/3/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, Week 17
by Guy Bruhn - 12/29/2020
The New Orleans Saints play the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium (4:25 PM EST). The probable starting QBs are Drew Brees for the Saints and Teddy Bridgewater for the Panthers. This matchup report includes betting lines and our NFL pick of the day for this game.
Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants Prediction, 1/3/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, Week 17
by Josh Schonwald - 12/29/2020
The Dallas Cowboys take on the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium (1:00 PM EST). The quarterbacks expected to start under center are Andy Dalton for the Cowboys and Colt McCoy for the Giants. This games report has current odds, betting predictions, and free picks against the spread.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns Prediction, 1/3/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, Week 17
by Josh Schonwald - 12/29/2020
The Pittsburgh Steelers hit the road to play the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium (1:00 PM EST). The QBs expected to start the game are Ben Roethlisberger for the Steelers and Baker Mayfield for the Browns. This matchup report includes football betting lines and our pick of the day for this game.
Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears Prediction, 1/3/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, Week 17
by Guy Bruhn - 12/29/2020
The Green Bay Packers hit the road to play the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field (4:25 PM EST). The probable starting quarterbacks are Aaron Rodgers for the Packers and Mitchell Trubisky for the Bears. This matchup report has your NFL football pick of the day as well as NFL football odds for the game.
Washington Football Team vs Philadelphia Eagles Prediction, 1/3/2021 NFL Pick, Tips and Odds, Week 17
by Tony Sink - 12/29/2020
The Washington Football Team hit the road to take on the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field (8:20 PM EST). The expected starters at QB are Dwayne Haskins for the Football Team and Jalen Hurts for the Eagles. This matchup report includes odds, betting predictions and a free pick against the spread.
1 234567891011 ... 125 Next >>Please note that the NFL picks above for tonight's games are not computer based. All of these articles are written by our talented staff. If you have any comments or suggestions please email service@docsports.com
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Introduction
Free Bet Blackjack is a blackjack variant by game inventor Geoff Hall. The twist to this one is the player doesn't have to risk his own money when splitting or doubling (most of the time). It is like playing with a generous boyfriend at the table who makes all the supplemental bets for you and lets you keep the winnings. What is the catch? Like in Geoff's other game, Blackjack Switch, if the dealer gets a 22, all bets left standing push.
The game opened for business on June 20, 2012 at the Golden Nugget. I went down for the game's debut and found the table full of people enjoying the game. The strategy is simpler and offers more doubles and splits than conventional blackjack. Gamblers who find the basic strategy of conventional blackjack too complicated to memorize may take relief in the simplicity of Free Bet Blackjack.
Rules
The rules have changed since the game launched at the Golden Nugget. It is my understand that the rules below are now the norm. The game is based on standard blackjack, with the following rules:
Free Online Betting Games
- Six decks
- Dealer hits soft 17's
- Blackjacks pay 3 to 2
- Double after split allowed
- Double on two cards only
- Re-split pairs up to four hands, including aces
- No surrender
The game introduces two major rule changes:
- 'Free Doubles' on hard totals of two-card total of 9, 10, or 11. Regular doubles are still allowed on all other two-card hands. With a 'free double,' the player's original wager is matched with a 'free bet' button and the player receives one additional card. At the end of the hand:
- If the dealer wins, the player loses his original wager only.
- If the hand results in a push, the player gets back his original wager only.
- Otherwise, if the player wins, the player gets back his original wager plus winnings equal to double that wager.
- 'Free Splits' on all pairs except 10's. With a 'free split,' the player's two cards are divided into two one-card hands. The player's original wager is placed with the first hand and a 'free bet' button is placed with the second hand. The player plays out each hand one at a time and is entitled to a 'free double' or 'free split' on both hands. For winning hands, each 'free bet' button is replaced with real chips equaling the original wager. On hands resulting in a player loss or push, the dealer takes back the 'free bet' button.
- Dealer pushes on 22. If the player has 21 or less and the dealer busts with 22, then the player's wager is a push.
Basic Strategy
Strategy depends on whether you are playing a real money bet or a free bet. There is a difference because a push is just as bad as a loss on a Free Bet, thus causing a more aggressive strategy. The following three tables show the strategy for a real money hand, free bet hand, and pairs respectively.
If you remember just one thing about the strategy, accept every free double and free split opportunity.
House Edge
The house edge under the standard rules above is 1.04%.
Rule Variants
Following are the effects of some possible rule variants. The effects are the change in the player's expected return. The figures below with a (SH) were taken with permission from Discount Gambling. The ones with a (Wiz) were calculated by me. It is interesting that the greater the number of decks, the better the odds for the player, which is the opposite of conventional blackjack. I assume it is because there is more free-splitting with more decks, due to a lesser effect of non-replacement.
- Free doubles with three or more cards (DG): +0.66%.
- Dealer stands on soft 17 (DG): +0.31%.
- Late surrender allowed (DG): +0.21%.
- One deck: -0.14% (Wiz).
- Two decks: -0.06% (Wiz).
- Eight decks: +0.01% (Wiz,DG).
- No re-splitting aces (DG): -0.08%.
- No free re-splits on a pair of fours (DG): -0.27%.
- No re-splitting 2-9: -0.32% (DG).
- No double or free-double after a split (DG): -0.70%.
- Blackjack pays 6 to 5: -1.36% (Wiz).
Pot of Gold
I have heard reports that some casinos offer a side bet called Pot of Gold, which is based on the number of Free Bet tokens the player accumulates per initial hand. The Washington Gambling Commission lists two Pot of Gold pay tables. Following is my analysis of both of them. These tables were based on a random simulation. The lower right cells show a house edge of 5.77% on pay table 1 and 4.64% on pay table 2.
Pot of Gold — Pay Table 1
| Tokens | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 1000 | 0.000002 | 0.002026 |
| 6 | 300 | 0.000027 | 0.008140 |
| 5 | 100 | 0.000194 | 0.019445 |
| 4 | 60 | 0.000847 | 0.050799 |
| 3 | 30 | 0.003866 | 0.115973 |
| 2 | 10 | 0.013488 | 0.134884 |
| 1 | 3 | 0.148155 | 0.444466 |
| 0 | -1 | 0.833420 | -0.833420 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.057686 |
Pot of Gold — Pay Table 2
| Tokens | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 100 | 0.000002 | 0.000203 |
| 6 | 100 | 0.000027 | 0.002713 |
| 5 | 100 | 0.000194 | 0.019445 |
| 4 | 50 | 0.000847 | 0.042333 |
| 3 | 30 | 0.003866 | 0.115973 |
| 2 | 12 | 0.013488 | 0.161861 |
| 1 | 3 | 0.148155 | 0.444466 |
| 0 | -1 | 0.833420 | -0.833420 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.046426 |
The player can lower the house edge on the Pot of Gold by splitting fives instead of doubling, at the detriment of the primary wager. If the player splits fives the house edge on the Pot of Gold will be 2.75% under Pay Table 1 and 1.48% under Pay Table 2. Splitting fives, instead of doubling, will increase the house edge on the base wager by 0.15%.
Acknowledgement
I would like to thank Geoff Hall, the inventor, for his cooperation with the rules and sharing the math report. This report is based on a combination of work between Stephen How and me. We are in close agreement on the house edge. The basic strategy and some of the effects of rule variations are the work of Stephen How.
Internal Links
- Original rule card. Please note that doubling on three or more cards is no longer allowed but free splits of fours is. Overall, the old rules were better, of course. Table game rules seldom get better for the player.
Outside Links
- Free Bet Blackjack page at Discount Gambling.
- Free Bet Blackjack Facebook page.